How Often Do Flight Prices Change (2026 Data)

Airfares in the United States almost never stand still. So, how often do flight prices change? In the official monthly measure, nearly every month: over the last 10 years the consumer price index for airline fares moved in 116¹ of 118² measured months, and the typical move was 2.9%¹ up or down.² Part of that is the calendar. July came in below June in all 13² recent normal years, and part is not: May 2026 cost 26.7%¹ more than May 2025.²

Changing the ticket itself has gone the other way. U.S. airlines collected $1.1 billion³ in reservation change and cancellation fees in 2025, about 65%¹ less than in 2015, and today Delta and American charge no change fee on standard tickets for trips that start in the U.S.⁴⁵⁶ When a flight goes wrong, what a passenger gets back depends on the rulebook: EU rules pay up to $682¹ (€600⁷) per passenger, while U.S. rules require a refund but no cash compensation for a delay or a cancellation.⁷⁸ A passenger bumped from an overbooked U.S. flight is the exception and can be owed up to $2,150⁹ in cash.⁹

How often flight prices change, month by month

The measure used here is the consumer price index for airline fares, which prices the plane tickets that urban U.S. consumers buy, for domestic and international trips, once a month.² It is an average price level, not a count of individual fare updates, so it shows how the going rate for a flight moves, not how often a single route is repriced within a day. A month counts as a move here when the index changes by 0.05%¹ or more in either direction.

In the last 10 years of data, September 2016 to August 2026, the index rose in 64² months, fell in 52² and stayed flat in only 2².² October 2025 is missing because no index was collected for that month, so the changes into and out of it are left out. The median move, up or down, was 2.86%¹ and the average move 3.80%¹. 71¹ months, or 60.2%¹, moved by 2% or more, and 33¹ months moved by 5% or more.²

Most of those moves are large. Seasonal adjustment, which removes the normal pattern of the calendar, cuts the typical monthly move from 2.86%¹ to 1.35%², so seasonal adjustment roughly halves the typical move: much of an ordinary month's change is the season repeating itself.² The adjusted series still moved in every one of the 118 months.

How often do flight prices drop?

Falls are now almost as common as rises, but that is new. In 1969-1978 the index fell in only 5.8%² of months and stayed flat in 68.3%².² From 1979 to 1999 it fell in 28.2%² of months, in the 2000s and the 2010s in 41.7%², and from 2020 to 2025 in 45.7%². Over the last 10 years, 44.1%¹ of months brought lower fares than the month before and 54.2%¹ brought higher ones.²

The size of a typical move grew as well. The median monthly change was 1.06%² in 1979-1999, 1.40%² in the 2000s and 1.83%² in the 2010s.² Moves of 5% or more happened in 1.7%² of months in the 2000s and in 34.3%² of months from 2020 to 2025. In the first eight months of 2026, fares rose in 5² months and fell in 3².²

The biggest monthly jumps and drops

The largest monthly rise since 1969 came in April 2022, 21.9%², followed by May 2022 at 16.1%².² The largest drops were August 2021, down 12.6%², and March and April 2020, down 12.5%² and 12.4%². Seven of the ten largest moves in either direction came in 2021 and 2022.² The index reached its highest monthly level in May 2022, at 344.853².²

Streaks were longest in the high-inflation years around 1980. The longest run of monthly rises lasted 28² months, from January 1979 to April 1981, and the longest run of falls 10² months, from August 2008 to May 2009.²

If fares move almost every month, can any of it be predicted? Part of it can, because the calendar repeats.

When in the year airfares rise and fall

Across 13 normal years, 2010 to 2019 and 2022 to 2024, airfares followed the same path through the year.² The years 2020 and 2021 are left out because travel collapsed and recovered, and 2025 because it lacks an October figure. January was the cheapest month, at 94.7%² of that year's average price level, and May the most expensive, at 108.0%², a gap of 13.3¹ points.

The level tells where prices sit; the monthly change tells which way they are heading. The table below gives, for each calendar month, the average change from the month before and the number of the 13 years in which that month rose.²

Some months almost never change direction. February and April rose in all 13² years and May in 12².² July rose in none of the 13 years and fell by 5.7%² on average, and August rose in only 1², falling 3.9%² on average. December rose in 2² of the 13 years and fell 4.1%² on average. September was flat on average and rose in 4² years.

October is the exception of the autumn: it rose in 11² of 13 years, by 2.6%² on average.²

Put simply, the same trip was cheapest, on average, in January, then in December, at 96.0%² of the yearly level, then in August and September, both at 96.8%², and dearest in late spring, when May and June stood 7%¹ to 8%¹ above it.²

Flight prices over time

Over the long run, the airline fare index rose from 23.7² in 1964 to 256.1² in 2025, on a base of 1982-84 = 100.² That is 10.81¹ times the 1964 level, just ahead of the 10.39¹ times for all consumer prices over the same years.¹⁰ In 2025 the annual average fell 2.1%² from 2024.²

The yearly path has two halves. In the 35¹ years from 1965 to 1999 the annual average never fell; since 2000 it has fallen in 13² of 26² years.² The largest yearly rise was 38.2%² in 1980 and the largest fall 18.0%² in 2020, followed by a 30.2%² rise in 2022. The median yearly change, either way, was 4.5%².²

By decade, airfares rose faster than prices in general in the 1980s and 1990s and then fell behind. In the 1980s the average yearly rise was 10.8%² for airfares against 5.5%¹⁰ for all items.²¹⁰ From 2010 to 2019 it was 0.4%² against 1.8%¹⁰, and from 2020 to 2025 again 0.4%², against 3.9%¹⁰.

How much have flight prices increased?

In dollars, a lot; after inflation, hardly at all. Dividing the airline fare index by the index for all items gives a real airline fare index. Set to 100 in 1964, it stood at 104.1¹ in 2025, after a peak of 181.8¹ in 2000 and a low of 88.6¹ in 1979.²¹⁰ So in 2025, after general inflation, airfares were 42.7%¹ below their 2000 peak and only slightly above their 1964 level.

The average fare actually paid tells the same story. The average domestic itinerary fare, a round trip or a one-way ticket for which no return is bought, was $318.62¹¹ in 1993 and $387.74¹¹ in 2025, 21.7%¹ more in current dollars.¹¹ In inflation-adjusted dollars of the first quarter of 2026, it fell from $722.16¹¹ to $394.08¹¹, or 45.4%¹. The low point in current dollars came in 2020, at $292.26¹¹.¹¹

Year by year, airfares have mostly lagged behind other prices lately. Airfares rose faster than all consumer prices in only 6¹ of the 20¹ years from 2006 to 2025, and in 2022, the year of the largest gap, airfares rose 30.2%² against 8.0%¹⁰ for all items.²¹⁰

The 2026 jump

2026 broke the run of flat and falling years. Every month from January to August 2026 was higher than the same month of 2025: January by 2.2%², March by 14.9%², May by 26.7%¹ and August by 23.4%².² From December 2025 to August 2026 the index rose 22.1%¹. The May 2026 level, 329.824², was still below the May 2022 record. The official series measures the size of the jump, not its cause, and the 2025 annual averages above do not include it.²

Ticket prices move every month. The price of changing a ticket moved once, and by a lot.

How much it costs to change a flight

For most U.S. travelers the answer in 2026 is nothing, as long as the ticket is not a basic fare. Delta charges no change fee on tickets that start in the U.S. or Canada, though tickets that start elsewhere may carry one.⁵ American charges none to change a Main Cabin, Premium Economy, Business or First ticket before the day of travel when the trip begins in North or South America, and up to $400⁶ when it begins elsewhere.⁶ Southwest charges no cancellation fee on any fare.¹²

The exception is the basic fare. Delta's Basic tickets carry a change fee of $0 to $400⁵ plus any fare difference, a cancellation charge of $99 to $500⁵ after the first 24 hours, and no same-day change.⁵ American lists no fee-free change for Basic Economy and charges AAdvantage members who booked directly $99⁶ to cancel a Basic Economy ticket within the 48 contiguous states and up to $199⁶ on long-haul routes.⁶ Southwest's Basic fare must be upgraded before it can be changed.¹² Same-day changes have their own price: at Delta free on Extra and refundable tickets and from $75⁵ on Classic, at American from $60⁶ on Main Cabin.⁵⁶

It was not always free. In July 2010 the fee to change or cancel a domestic economy ticket was $150 at American, Delta, Hawaiian and United, and by April 2017 it was $200 at all four.¹⁴ Across the eleven airlines compared, the fee ranged from $50 to $150 in 2010 and from $50 to $200 in 2017, Southwest charged none in either year, and 6¹⁴ of the 10¹⁴ airlines that charged the fee raised it.¹⁴

The fee money shows how much this mattered to airlines. U.S. scheduled passenger airlines reported $2,389.5 million⁴ in reservation change and cancellation fees in 2011 and a peak of $3,011.8 million⁴ in 2015.⁴ The total stayed close to that level for four more years: $2,906 million¹⁵ in 2016, $2,856 million¹⁵ in 2017, $2.7 billion¹⁶ in 2018 and $2.8 billion¹⁷ in 2019.¹⁵¹⁶¹⁷

Then the floor dropped. Fee revenue fell to $898 million¹⁸ in 2020, a year in which airline operating revenue shrank to $77.3 billion¹⁸, and to $698 million¹⁹ in 2021, about 75%¹ less than in 2019.¹⁸¹⁹ It has stayed at that lower level since: $1.0 billion²⁰ in 2022, $1.1 billion²¹ in 2023, $1.0 billion²² in 2024 and $1.1 billion in 2025.^2021223 The domestic and international parts printed for 2025 add up to $1,053 million¹, which is 65.0%¹ below the 2015 peak.³ As a share of airline operating revenue, change and cancellation fees fell from 1.78%⁴ in 2015 to 0.4%³ in 2025.⁴³

Domestic trips bring in most of it. In 2025 domestic operations produced $851 million³ of change and cancellation fees and international operations $202 million³.³ International fee revenue fell furthest in the pandemic years, to $88 million¹⁹ in 2021, and has since more than doubled.¹⁹ In 2016 the split was $1,880 million¹⁵ domestic and $1,026 million¹⁵ international.¹⁵

Quarterly figures are available for 2016. That year fee revenue was highest in the second quarter, $755 million²³, and lowest in the fourth, $661 million²³.²³ Added up, the four quarters come to $2,896 million¹, our calculation (sum of four quarters) from the first quarterly figures; the annual total was later revised to $2,906 million.¹⁵

How much it costs to cancel a flight

On the large U.S. airlines, cancelling a ticket yourself usually costs no fee, but the money often comes back as credit rather than cash. Southwest charges no cancellation fee on any fare: its Choice Extra and Choice Preferred fares are refundable if cancelled at least 10¹² minutes before departure, while Choice and Basic fares turn into flight credit.¹² Delta offers a 24⁵-hour risk-free cancellation on tickets bought directly from it.⁵

When the airline cancels, the rules change. Under the U.S. refund rule published on April 26, 2024, a passenger is owed an automatic refund when the airline cancels or significantly changes a flight and the passenger does not accept the alternative offered.⁸ A significant change includes leaving 3 or more hours earlier or arriving 3 or more hours later on a domestic flight, 6 or more hours on an international one, a different departure or arrival airport, more connections, or a downgrade to a lower class of service.⁸

Refunds are due within 7⁸ business days for credit card purchases and 20⁸ calendar days for other payments.⁸ Fees for extras that were paid for but not delivered are refunded too, and so is a checked-bag fee when the bag is significantly delayed. What the rule does not include is cash compensation for the delay or the cancellation itself. Insurance that pays back a trip the traveler cancels for personal reasons is a separate product, covered on the travel insurance cost page.

How often flights are cancelled

In 2025, U.S. reporting airlines cancelled 1.53%²⁴ of their scheduled arriving flights.²⁴ Every rate in this section counts flights scheduled to arrive, as reported in the on-time arrival data. Since 2004 the yearly rate has stayed between 1.17%²⁴, in 2016, and 2.71%²⁴, in 2022, in every year but one: in 2020 it reached 5.99%²⁴, 3.92¹ times the 2025 rate.²⁴

Within a year, the risk peaks in January. January had the highest cancellation rate of each full year shown, 3.79%²⁴ in 2024 and 3.13%²⁴ in 2025, and January 2026 reached 4.82%²⁴.²⁴ Summer is also risky: July came in at 2.89%²⁴ in 2024 and 2.58%²⁴ in 2025. The calmest months were November 2024, at 0.46%²⁴, and September 2025, at 0.50%²⁴, while February and December 2024 were also among the calmer months, at 0.59%²⁴ and 0.72%²⁴. November 2025 stood out at 2.60%²⁴.²⁴

Airlines differ by a factor of almost ten. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.55%²⁴ of its scheduled arriving flights in 2025 and Allegiant 0.47%²⁴.²⁴ Among the four largest airlines, United cancelled 0.82%²⁴, Southwest 0.85%²⁴, Delta 1.08%²⁴ and American 1.82%²⁴.²⁴

Airports differ almost as much. Among 24 large hub airports, Washington Reagan National (DCA) had the highest rate in 2025, 3.83%²⁴, followed by New York LaGuardia at 3.12%²⁴, Dallas/Fort Worth at 2.83%²⁴ and Newark at 2.81%²⁴.²⁴ Salt Lake City had the lowest, 0.52%²⁴, so a flight into DCA was 7.37¹ times as likely to be cancelled as one into Salt Lake City.²⁴

Across the country, one major airport in each state, used as a stand-in for the state, shows the same spread. Charleston, West Virginia (CRW) had 3.04%²⁴ of its scheduled arriving flights cancelled in 2025 and Burlington, Vermont (BTV) 2.76%²⁴, while Boise, Idaho (BOI) had 0.47%²⁴ and Bozeman, Montana (BZN) 0.57%²⁴.²⁴

Cancellations are the rarer failure. In 2025, 76.42%²⁴ of scheduled arriving flights arrived on time, down from 78.97%²⁴ in 2019, and the largest single cause of delay was an aircraft arriving late from its previous flight, at 7.96%²⁴ of flights.²⁴ Delays caused by the airline itself rose from 5.22%²⁴ to 6.59%²⁴ of flights.²⁴

Compensation when a flight is late or cancelled

What a passenger gets for a late or cancelled flight depends less on the airline than on which rules cover the trip. For a delay or a cancellation, the U.S. requires refunds but sets no cash compensation, while the EU, the UK and Canada set fixed amounts.⁸⁷²⁵²⁶ For a passenger bumped from an overbooked flight, the U.S. does set a cash amount.⁹ Dollar amounts below are converted at the reference rates of September 24, 2026.²⁷

How much compensation for a delayed flight?

Under EU rules, a flight that reaches its destination 3 hours or more late pays $284.18¹ (€250⁷) for trips of 932 miles (1,500 km) or less, $454.68¹ (€400⁷) for longer trips within the EU and other flights of 932 to 2,175 miles (1,500 to 3,500 km), and $682.02¹ (€600⁷) for longer flights that are 4 hours or more late; a long flight pays $341.01¹ (€300⁷) when it is 3 to 4 hours late.²⁷

UK rules pay $290.83¹ (£220²⁵) for flights under 932 miles (1,500 km), $462.69¹ (£350²⁵) for 932 to 2,175 miles (1,500 to 3,500 km), and for longer flights $343.71¹ (£260²⁵) at 3 to 4 hours late or $687.42¹ (£520²⁵) at 4 hours or more.²⁵²⁷ After 5 hours the passenger may take a refund instead of traveling.²⁵

Canada ties the amount to the delay at arrival and to the size of the airline, when the delay is within the airline's control. A large carrier pays $283.34¹ (CAD 400²⁶) for 3 to 6 hours late, $495.85¹ (CAD 700²⁶) for 6 to 9 hours and $708.36¹ (CAD 1,000²⁶) for 9 hours or more; a small carrier pays CAD 125, 250 and 500.²⁶²⁷ In the U.S. the amount is zero: a late flight earns no cash compensation.⁸

How much compensation for a cancelled flight?

In the EU, a cancellation pays the same €250, €400 or €600 when the passenger is told less than 14 days before departure, and nothing when told earlier or when extraordinary circumstances caused it.⁷ If the airline re-routes the passenger to arrive within 2, 3 or 4 hours of the original time, the amount is cut by 50%⁷, to €125, €200 or €300, and a refund, when chosen, is due within 7 days.⁷

Canada's highest amounts are for denied boarding, when a passenger is refused boarding: $637.52¹ (CAD 900²⁶) for arriving less than 6 hours late, $1,275.04¹ (CAD 1,800²⁶) for 6 to 9 hours and $1,700.06¹ (CAD 2,400²⁶) for 9 hours or more.²⁶²⁷ In the U.S., a cancelled flight means the fare comes back, not a payment on top of it.⁸ Being bumped is different. A passenger denied boarding against their will on an oversold U.S. flight is owed 200%⁹ of the fare to the destination or first stopover, up to $1,075⁹, when the new flight arrives 1 to 2 hours late (1 to 4 hours on an international trip), and 400%⁹, up to $2,150⁹, when it arrives later or no alternative is offered.⁹ That cap is higher than Canada's top denied-boarding amount.

What this means for travelers

The numbers point to three practical habits. First, timing within the year matters, and it is the one pattern the official data can confirm: the average January fare level sat 13.3¹ points of the yearly average below May's, and July came in below June in every normal year measured.² No official series tracks fares by the day or the hour, so advice about the best day or hour to buy cannot be checked against public data.

Second, flexibility is cheaper than it was. With no change fee on most main-cabin tickets at the largest airlines, the choice between a basic fare and a standard one is now mostly a choice about the right to change it.⁵⁶ Airline revenue shows the shift: change and cancellation fees were a far smaller slice of operating revenue in 2025 than in 2015.⁴³

Third, protection on a disrupted trip depends on the rules that cover it. The longest delays can pay up to $708.36 under Canadian rules for a large carrier, $687.42 under UK rules and $682.02 under EU rules, and nothing in cash under U.S. rules.^26257278 January flights, and flights into the most crowded airports, carry the highest risk of a cancellation.²⁴

Conclusions

1. A monthly move is the normal state, and about half of it is the calendar. Fares moved in 116 of the last 118 measured months; the typical move is 2.86% before and 1.35% after seasonal adjustment.²
2. Direction is close to a coin flip; timing is not. 54.2% of months rose and 44.1% fell, yet July fell in 12 of 13 normal years and was flat in the other, while February and April rose in all 13.²
3. Falling years belong to this century. Annual airfares fell in none of the years 1965-1999 but in 13 of 26 since 2000, and in 2025 real fares were 42.7% below 2000. The 22.1% rise from December 2025 to August 2026 is not in that annual figure.²¹⁰
4. Changing a ticket got cheaper faster than the ticket. Airlines took in $3,011.8 million in change and cancellation fees in 2015 and $1,053 million in 2025 (domestic plus international), 65.0% less, and the fees' share of operating revenue fell from 1.78% to 0.4%.⁴³
5. Compensation depends on the rulebook, not the airline. For a cancellation or a significant delay the U.S. requires a refund but no cash compensation, while EU rules pay up to $682.02 and Canadian rules up to $708.36. For denied boarding the U.S. cap, up to $2,150, is above Canada's $1,700.06. In 2025, 1.53% of U.S. scheduled arriving flights were cancelled, and 3.83% at Washington Reagan National.^897262724